Kalshi
Federally regulated prediction market exchange where people can trade on real-world events.
- Founded
- 2018
- Headquarters
- New York, NY
- Latest Round
- Series D
- Est. Valuation
- ~$5,000M
Investment Thesis
Kalshi is the first federally regulated prediction market exchange in the United States, designated as a Designated Contract Market by the CFTC. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, the platform allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events across categories including politics, economics, weather, and culture.
Kalshi has experienced extraordinary growth with trading volume increasing 200-fold and its user base expanding 20x year over year. The platform now represents over 60% of global prediction market activity. With its Series D funding, Kalshi launched a global expansion connecting users across more than 140 countries through a single liquidity pool, replacing fragmented regional markets with a unified global exchange.
Financial markets let you bet on stocks, bonds, and commodities, but there's no regulated exchange for trading on real-world events — elections, weather, economic indicators, Fed decisions — forcing this activity into offshore, unregulated platforms.
Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S., offering legally compliant event contracts that give traders, hedgers, and institutions a new asset class for expressing views on real-world outcomes.
Processed $3B+ in trading volume on the 2024 U.S. presidential election alone; growing rapidly across categories including economics, weather, and tech; prediction markets consistently outperform polls and expert forecasts.
Regulatory clarity from the CFTC, proven accuracy of prediction markets during the 2024 election cycle, and growing institutional interest in alternative data and hedging instruments have created a perfect storm for mainstream adoption.